“To count Taylor Knibb out for a medal in Paris is ludicrous,” says long-course star Sam Long
As the world’s best short-course triathletes head to Paris for Olympic glory, we turned to the world’s top long-course athletes to assess their chances…
Ever wondered how other pro triathletes rate the short-course stars’ chances in Paris? Who will they be shouting at the TV for when the racing starts at the end of July?
Well, we asked a few well-known long-course elites if they’d share their predictions, and while some refused point blank to go there, others were keen to share!
And so here are Ashleigh Gentle, Jan Frodeno, Sam Long, Kat Matthews and Sky Moench’s Paris medal predictions for the individual and mixed team relay events…
Ashleigh Gentle’s Paris predictions
Ashleigh Gentle is an Australian two-time Olympian and PTO-ranked world No. 2, who has won more 100km races than anyone else.
Individual races
Gold: Cassandre Beaugrand & Hayden Wilde
Silver: Taylor Knibb & Alex Yee
Bronze: Flora Duffy & Matt Hauser
“Taylor will definitely try something on the bike in Paris which might end up getting her the gold medal, but I also think Beaugrand’s run is a weapon which we’ve not seen the full force of yet. Defending champion Flora is on the up and if Taylor does break on the bike, Flora will go with her in a medal-winning move.
“Like Knibb, I think Wilde will make a move on the bike as well. Even if he gets a really small chunk of time, I think any gap can be enough to get him the gold ahead of Yee. Hauser is a really good all-rounder and will be there at the front from the start – and I won’t deny I’m a bit biased.”
Gold: France
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Germany
“You cannot fault the French team, with no weaknesses and six really good athletes to choose from. Great Britain have few frailties either but I’m going for hometown advantage. Lisa Tertsch and Laura Lindemann are podium chances in the individual race and Lindemann is especially good over the sprint distance. So, with the German women lifting their men, I think they can grab bronze.”
Jan Frodeno’s Paris predictions
Beijing 2008 Olympic champion and three-time Ironman world champion Jan Frodeno, is quite simply, one of the greatest triathletes of all time.
Individual races
Gold: Cassandre Beaugrand & Hayden Wilde
Silver: Beth Potter & Alex Yee
Bronze: Nina Elm & Tim Hellwig
“I feel Beaugrand can lift her game in front of a home crowd to win sport’s ultimate title, a home Olympic gold medal. She’s finished second enough times to know she doesn’t want to be there again and can just get the edge over on-paper favourite Potter. I’m pulling for a German rookie who is building momentum to round out the podium.
“Wilde is the coolest cat at the front of the pack who will thrive on the opportunity. As with Potter, Yee is the on-paper favourite who has the ultimate kick on the home straight, so it’s hard to see him not winning if it’s a pure foot race. Hellwig is another German who has benefitted from the team reset following the last Olympic cycle.”
Mixed team relay
Gold: France
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: Germany
“The strength in depth of the French is unreal. They have the last two men’s world champions and all three women are in medal contention. With their extreme talent, GB can put up a sound defence of their title from Tokyo. And while they might be outsiders for individual medals, I’d be surprised not to see Germany on the rostrum here. Good guidance, young, fast athletes, with nothing to lose.”
Sam Long’s Paris predictions
US star Sam Long is an Ironman champion, multiple Ironman 70.3 winner and is currently leading the T100 rankings.
Individual races
Gold: Beth Potter & Alex Yee
Silver: Cassandre Beaugrand & Morgan Pearson
Bronze: Taylor Knibb & Hayden Wilde
“The women’s race is harder to pick than the men’s because there are so many who could take it, but the course in Paris suggests it will come down to the run where Potter excels. Beaugrand has been super consistent and I’m picking Knibb for bronze to back the Americans. Also, she can do anything, so to count her out is ludicrous!
“Yee and Wilde are the two heavy favourites, but Pearson showed by winning Yokohama WTCS in May that he can be in the mix. When he is in the race over the final 10km, he can beat anyone, so I see him being able to get the silver. Plus, as with Knibb, I want to back the Americans all day.”
Mixed team relay
Gold: Great Britain
Silver: France
Bronze: USA
“I can’t look past the big three for the relay medals with GB defending their title. The home nation should run them very close and the US have a good enough quartet to come through for third. Anything can happen in the relay though, so be prepared for a few upsets.”
Kat Matthews’ Paris predictions
Runner-up in both the Ironman World Championship and Ironman 70.3 worlds, Brit Kat Matthews is established as one of the leading long-course triathletes in the world.
Individual races
Gold: Beth Potter & Alex Yee
Silver: Lisa Tertsch & Hayden Wilde
Bronze: Cassandre Beaugrand & Matt Hauser
“Beth has been consistently brilliant for 18 months and on a good day is the fastest runner in the field. Tertsch has been constantly on the rise and without a gap out of T2 would have won Cagliari WTCS in May.
“The win in Sardinia was only Cassandra’s first Olympic distance World Series victory. That’s not a lot of proven form over the distance but is enough to think she will medal, although she’ll have a fight with Léonie Périault for top French woman.
“The men’s gold and silver picks seem easy to call. Alex and Hayden are leagues ahead of the rest of the field, and in their head-to-heads so far Alex comes out on top. To be honest, with so many in contention, the bronze is a bit of a guess.”
Mixed team relay
Gold: Great Britain
Silver: France
Bronze: Germany
“We [GBR] will win the relay, obviously, though our second male, Sam Dickinson, will have a lot of pressure on his head. With the patriotic home crowd, France are probably the favourites, so should deliver silver. Germany have such strong women they will do the job for bronze.”
Skye Moench’s Paris predictions
Skye Moench is a four-time Ironman champion from the US with one of the best bike-run combinations in long-course racing. She’s expecting her first child in November.
Individual races
Gold: Cassandre Beaugrand & Alex Yee
Silver: Beth Potter & Hayden Wilde
Bronze: Taylor Knibb & Morgan Pearson
“I’ve not heard any conversation lately where Alex was mentioned, and Hayden was not. They seem to be so closely linked in their racing performances, and no doubt they help get the best out of each other. I expect the Olympics to be the same, but think Alex will inch Hayden out when it comes to the finish.
“Despite Morgan’s ability, he isn’t super consistent so feels like a wildcard. But I think he can pull it off, especially if he’s positioned well after the bike, and then runs to his potential on the day that it counts the most.
“Cassandre has been showing great form with her first Olympic distance win in Cagliari and a hometown will add that little extra bit of motivation. It would be awesome to see a fairytale gold medal in Paris with a French athlete taking it home.
“Beth has been on an incredible rise since Tokyo and as the only GB woman to auto qualify through GB’s crazy high standards. She doesn’t seem to have a weakness, it’s just who can pull off the faster run on the day.
“While taking a beating from Taylor in long-course racing is always humbling, it’s also incredible to witness. I’ve loved seeing Taylor thrive in all of her endeavours the last couple of years, and I’d love nothing more than to see her medal in Paris. Taylor seems to have a dream team assembled to help her get the best out of herself and I hope it all comes together for her. She certainly has the support, talent, and ability to have a great day.”
Mixed team relay
Gold: France
Silver: Great Britain
Bronze: USA
“The same podium as Tokyo but the order is changed! I think the French team has gotten even faster since Tokyo, and being a home Olympics, the crowds and vibes will very much be in their favour!
“Great Britain seemed to have more Olympic-worthy athletes than they knew what to do with for team selection.
“Team USA loves to step it up when it counts the most, and have a formidable combination. Whatever the podium ends up being, I am sure it will be a dramatic and exciting race!”
Tim Heming
Freelance triathlon journalist 
