Will the swim go ahead in the 2024 Paris Olympic triathlon events?
From water quality concerns to team selection controversies, home advantages to a boring bike course, these are the six key talking points you need to know ahead of the Games…
Triathlon promises to deliver some of the most exciting events of the upcoming Olympics and there is certainly high anticipation and more than a frisson of excitement and uncertainty over what lies ahead.
From water-quality concerns to the merits of a city-centre bike course to selection debates and medal chances, here are six of the biggest talking points heading into the competition.
Will the Olympic triathlon be reduced to a duathlon in Paris?
The dives from the pontoon by the Pont Alexandre III bridge into the Seine are set to be captured as one of the iconic images of the Paris Games – not just showcasing the athletes taking part, but the rubberstamp on a $1.5bn clean-up to leave a transforming legacy for the waterway.
Swimming in the river has happened sparingly in recent years due to fears of the water quality and these were elevated when Olympic test events were cancelled last summer.
With heavy rainfall in the spring not helping, rumours still abound that the triathlons will fail water quality tests and be demoted to duathlons. Similar discussions took place before previous Games, and the swim has always gone ahead.
While an urban river offers a different challenge the Paris local organising committee remains bullish that Plan A will proceed without issue. Just for the record, Plan B is contingency days for racing on 2 August and 6 August, and Plan C is a duathlon.
Can Taylor Knibb win medals at both triathlon and cycling?
In winning the US national time-trial championship in West Virginia in May, the USA’s No. 1 female Taylor Knibb booked her spot for road cycling in Paris. Having already qualified for the triathlon, it also launched the possibility of an unprecedented medal treble.
The time-trial comes first (27 July) followed by the individual triathlon (31 July) and then the mixed team relay (5 August). There are still a few wrinkles to iron out, such as whether she’ll line up in the cycling road race on 4 August – the afternoon before the triathlon relay.
Knibb has previously said she wouldn’t, but USA Cycling may not want to concede this yet as they’ll have to let the spot go if she doesn’t start.
What are her chances? This is where it will be fascinating. Although she has had enough experience in long-course triathlon, Knibb remains a novice in pure time-trialling. It’s difficult to predict how she will fare, yet her trajectory of improvement is so steep a medal-winning performance can’t be ruled out.
While the triathlons are more of a known quantity, getting on to the individual podium is not a given, and, if selected, there will be a reliance on team members to bring home relay hardware. The upshot is Knibb could have three great races and come away with nothing to show for it but the memories. Similarly, she could break new ground with a triple medal haul.
Will the home nation win an Olympic triathlon medal?
Having long been one of the finest triathlon nations in the world, it’s remarkably underwhelming that France only has a bronze medal from the mixed team relay in Tokyo to show for it. Paris could not offer a better opportunity.
Not only will they have home advantage, but the best strength in depth of any competing nation. All six triathletes on the team are individual medal contenders. No other country gets near that. And it follows that even if a couple perform below par they will still have a formidable quartet to put out for the mixed relay.
In the men’s event, Léo Bergere, Dorian Coninx and Pierre Le Corre are of such calibre they kept two-time world champion Vincent Luis out of the team.
The women have won both WTCS races in 2024. Léonie Périault in Yokohama and Cassandre Beaugrand in Cagliari. They are ably supported by Emma Lombardi who aged 22 hasn’t been outside the top 10 in a race for two years.
If the swim being cancelled would feel unconscionable, the French not winning a medal would come a close second.
Will the course lead to exciting racing or a snoozefest on the bike?
It’s one for the triathlon purest, but while the watching world will delight at the backdrop of the Eiffel Tower, L’Arc de Triomphe, and a French carnival atmosphere, the bike leg of the races could become a roll around on the cobbles of the Champs Élysées.
There are a few technical parts, but a flat profile and wide roads isn’t a recipe for front pack breakaways or even kamikaze solo attacks. It’s not helped that the WTCS racing in the last Olympic cycle has largely been defined by large groups coming into T2 together and turning it into a running race.
None of this means it won’t be full-on racing from get-go, and the uncertainty of the currents in the Seine and less world-class talent than in many WTCS races (the Olympics reserves spots for developing nations) could mean there is more of a split before the end of the swim.
As a golden lining, while the bike leg staying together might not be the most exciting viewing, it probably helps Britain’s best medal chances, putting Alex Yee and Beth Potter in the best position to top the podium.
Can either Olympic champion defend their title in Paris?
Only Alistair Brownlee in Rio 2016 has ever defended an Olympic triathlon title and for differing reasons there has been less chatter about the Tokyo gold medallists Kristian Blummenfelt and Flora Duffy heading into Paris.
After winning Olympic gold in 2021, Blummenfelt won pretty much everything the sport had to offer in the year that followed, including world titles at short course, Ironman 70.3 and Ironman. He even found time for a Sub-7 project where he set the fastest time ever over the distance.
But his return to short course has been patchy and he’s yet to find his way back on to a WTCS podium. Don’t write off the Norwegian, though. With coach Olav Aleksander Bu at the helm, the Bergen-born star is likely to have a few tricks up his sleeve.
Duffy turns 37 the month after the Olympics and with a dedicated day, street and probably lots more things named after her is a talismanic figure in Bermuda. Injury has been her nemesis in this Olympic cycle and after missing all of last year there were fears she might not make it back.
The show of emotion after top-10 returns in Yokohama and Cagliari hinted at how tough the recovery has been, but reports coming out of Boulder suggest that her form is on the up. The verdict? While neither Olympic champion starts as favourite, it would be foolhardy to write off either.
Will the controversial Team GB selections prove the right decisions?
Spoilt by its depth of talent, and with only Alex Yee and Beth Potter sealing automatic qualification, picking the rest of the British triathlon team for Paris was always going to be difficult. The key calls came whether to pick Jonny Brownlee or Sam Dickinson, and Sophie Coldwell or Kate Waugh.
Dickinson’s chance to prove his worth will come in the mixed relay. With each leg taking less than 20mins it’s unlikely that there would ever have been more than a few seconds between his performance or that of Brownlee’s. Where he needs to get it right is by not making any major errors, such as picking up a penalty or crashing out.
Waugh’s selection over Coldwell was an equally close call. In her first Olympics, Waugh has an outside chance of a medal, but there are no guarantees. However she performs, any review should focus more on the procedure of how she was selected rather than trying to appraise the decision through her finishing position.
Tim Heming
Freelance triathlon journalist 
