Who will win the women’s Ironman World Championship in Nice?

It’s Ironman World Championship season again, and just as in 2023 we have the split venues of Nice and Kona, with this time the women leading off on the French Riviera on 22 September.

At the start of the year, this race was set to be five-time winner Daniela Ryf’s farewell to triathlon and reigning champion Lucy Charles-Barclay was adamant she was all in on the PTO T100 Series and wouldn’t be defending her crown.

But things change quickly in swim, bike and run, and with Ryf announcing her forced retirement due to a back injury, and Charles-Barclay lured back by the power of the M-Dot – even heading to the venue for her validation race – the start-list takes on a different complexion.

Into the unknown

The defending champion, who turns 31 at the weekend, slayed any demons of four consecutive runner-up finishes by winning in Hawaii last time out and will start as a favourite, but there are plenty of unknowns.

The first is the course. While LCB won in Nice in June, it was a low-key pro race devoid of the challengers she’ll expect to face in a fortnight, but it will be interesting to see how her bike, in particular, holds up on a more technical 112 miles in the maritime Alps.

The second is form and fitness. A career first DNF in the T100 London race in late July might have been precautionary, but she admitted the Achilles issue that almost stopped the Kona charge still lingers.

The challengers

Without Ryf, there are just two other former winners, USA’s 2022 champion Chelsea Sodaro and Germany’s 2019 champ Anne Haug.

Both have had up and down years. Haug, normally so consistent, was out with an unconfirmed injury at the start of the year and despite being a contracted T100 athlete has raced just once over the distance, an underwhelming 11th place in London.

However, she did comfortably win Ironman Lanzarote and then set the fastest ever time for the iron distance of 8:02:38 in Challenge Roth, finishing with a 2:38:52 marathon.

That result alone marks her out as many people’s outright favourite, and at just 5ft 4in, with a bike course that should suit her, the 41-year-old would become the oldest professional Ironman world champion in history.

Sodaro is a similarly enigmatic prospect, but without the big performance since her win in Kona almost two years ago that suggests she could repeat the feat.

Having split with coach Dan Plews who guided her to that win, the Californian has raced sparingly since an early year victory in Ironman New Zealand, although an eighth place in the London T100 suggested she might be edging into form at the right time.

Eyes on the prize

Germany’s Laura Philipp and Britain’s Kat Matthews are the two other big names on the start-list.

Philipp has raced as consistently as ever, choosing to validate her Nice spot by racing a trio of Ironman 70.3 events before the end of May, and then posting a time of 8:14:13 in Roth which, although outshone by Haug, was the third fastest time in history.

Despite plenty of drama, from a pulled calf muscle in Miami to disqualification in Hamburg, Matthews has somehow made a decent fist of challenging for both the T100 Series (two podiums) and Ironman Pro Series (two Ironman victories).

A solid result in Nice would put her in prime position for the latter and $200,000 first prize, which adds a sub-plot of whether she’d risk blowing up going all out for the win.

It’s difficult to pick a winner outside of the leading five, but the US duo of Jackie Hering and Danielle Lewis currently occupy the top two positions in the Ironman Pro Series and will be buoyed by topping full distance podiums this year.

Lewis won over the 140.6-mile distance for the first time in Lake Placid in July and Hering won in Hamburg on her return to long course after an absence of almost nine years.

The British contingent

As always there is a formidable British contingent with eight women in the 50-strong field from GB – only Germany have more with nine.

India Lee, who raised eyebrows with a win in T100 Miami in March, takes on her first Ironman World Championship at only her third full distance race, having qualified with a second place in Florida in November.

Fenella Langridge will be looking to animate the race the way she did when finishing sixth in Hawaii in 2022.

Ruth Astle has had a disrupted few years due to calf injuries but tends to dig out a performance at the Ironman worlds.

Astle can reflect on a fifth in Ironman St George in 2022 as a reason for optimism, as well as sealing her qualification for Nice by making the podium in Vitoria-Gasteiz in Spain in July.

Simone Mitchell also secured her Nice spot in Spain, highlighted by a 2:56:35 marathon that shows her potential despite a pro career with more DNFs than she’d like.

Nikki Bartlett booked her space by winning Ironman Wales last year and crossed the border again in July to win 70.3 Swansea.

Having not raced an Ironman World Championship for five years, she’ll hope the closer-to-home location provides an additional boost.

The final Brit is Rosie Wild who, like Matthews’, is a member of the British Army. Wild only began racing professionally this year. With little to lose and much to learn, it’ll be a second full-distance challenge after qualifying in Lanzarote.

Ready for the action to commence? Here’s our guide on how to watch the Ironman World Championship live.