Collins Cup 2022: Our predictions for the race

The Collins Cup is back in Slovakia as triathlon’s non-drafting team competition takes centre stage at the purpose-built sports mecca of Samorin’s X-Bionic Sphere on Saturday 20 August.

For those unfamiliar with the format, it’s based loosely on golf’s Ryder Cup, but as well as Team Europe taking on Team USA, Team Internationals is also thrown into the mix.

A series of 12 matches – six women’s and six men’s – are spaced out through the afternoon in a head-to-head-to-head contest over a 2km swim, 80km bike leg and 18km run. Points are awarded depending on finishing positions with bonus points on offer for bigger time gaps.

It’s the flagship event of the Professional Triathletes Organisation, with appearance fees of $1.5million split between the 36 triathletes – the top-ranked man and woman earning $90k each.

Each team fields six men and six women, with four being chosen through the PTO rankings for each gender, plus two captains’ picks.

• PTO announce full teams for 2022 Collins Cup

Team Europe were the clear favourites in last year’s race and eventually ran out comfortable winners with 42.5 points, ahead of Team USA (31.5) and Team Internationals (25.5).

Twenty of the original 36 triathletes will return for 2022 as it is once again a roll call of the leading contenders in non-drafting triathlon, plus a sprinkling of star names from the short-course scene.

Those to watch out for include both Ironman reigning champions and PTO-ranked No 1s, Daniela Ryf and Kristian Blummenfelt, but also captains’ picks such as Bermudian Olympic champion Flora Duffy, London 2012 winner Nicola Spirig, and New Zealand’s Tokyo Olympic bronze medallist Hayden Wilde.

There’s also British representation on Team Europe once again through Kat Matthews and Holly Lawrence.

Here’s our thoughts on who will be the key players and how the event might play out…

Who to watch in Team Europe?

Seven of last year’s winning team return, although only three of those won their 2021 match-ups, including Britain’s Matthews and PTO-ranked No 2 Gustav Iden.

Having been a captains’ pick in 2021, Matthews is an automatic qualifier this time after a brilliant few months that has seen her come second to Daniela Ryf in the Ironman World Championship and become the fastest women ever over the iron distance in the Sub 8 project in June.

There aren’t as many Brits on show in Samorin this year, with only captains’ pick Lawrence joining Matthews.

Joe Skipper, PTO-ranked No 16, hasn’t been re-selected and Emma Pallant-Browne – the third fastest women in 2021 – was somewhat controversially omitted in favour of lower-ranked Lawrence and 40-year-old Spirig.

While the men’s team is without three-time Kona winner Jan Frodeno – who set the fastest overall time of 3:13:08 last year – they do have reigning Ironman and Olympic champion Blummenfelt of Norway to call upon, plus two impressive Danes in Daniel Bækkegård and Magnus Elbæk Ditlev – whose Challenge Roth time of 7:35:48 last month was just outside Frodeno’s course record.

The women have strength across the board again. Ryf and Anne Haug both return and will be intent on avenging losses from last year. Haug’s fellow German Laura Philipp is also included having missed Chrissie Wellington’s iron distance record time by just 7secs in Hamburg in June.

Who to watch in Team USA?

Team USA were largely unfancied heading into last year’s Collins Cup, but produced a performance to exceed expectations – largely thanks to a fast start from the women with two wins from the first three match-ups.

One of those victors, Jackie Hering returns, but the other, Taylor Knibb, who took many of the headlines by winning the first match riding a road bike, setting the fastest overall time, and beating Ryf in the process, has pulled out on the eve of the event.

That’s likely to be a big loss, but Skye Moench, Chelsea Sodaro and Jocelyn McCauley, who all placed second in their matches last year return, with Sodaro showing she’s in top form recently with third place in a stacked field at the PTO Canadian Open over the same 100km distance.

While there’s no Katie Zafares for 2022, Sarah True is selected as a captains’ pick. The 40-year-old had a decorated short-course career, including placing fourth in London 2012, and has won both races this year, most recently Ironman Lake Placid.

The men’s side is where the USA came unstuck last year, but they do have the returning Sam Long and Ben Kanute to call on, who despite defeats in 2021 were the USA’s two fastest athletes.

Rudy Von Berg will be itching to make an appearance after withdrawing sick during race week last year, and if debutants Chris Leiferman and Jason West, along with third men’s returnee Matt Hanson, can still be in contention on the final leg, it’s a chance to unleash their strength on the run.

Who to watch in Team Internationals?

Despite finishing bottom of the pile last year, Team Internationals finished strongly, winning three of the final four match-ups to close the gap to USA.

That trio of Lionel Sanders, Braden Currie and Jackson Laundry are all back along with in-form Max Neumann, who retained his Ironman title in Cairns in June and was a creditable eighth in the PTO Canadian Open.

It’s the captains’ picks that take the eye though, with Kiwi Wilde and Aussie Aaron Royle largely unknown factors in this format, although Royle’s emotional third place in Canada behind the two Norwegians suggests he may be well suited to it.

The women look far stronger than in 2021, with Paula Findlay returning in better form and the introduction of Canadian Open winner Ashleigh Gentle and fast-running Canadian Tamara Jewett.

Brazilian captains’ pick Vittoria Lopes is competing regularly on the World Triathlon Championship Series and could take the mantle of the fastest swimmer of the day from Lucy Charles-Barclay, who is recovering from injury and starts her season the following day in the World Triathlon Long Course Championship.

But it is the addition of Olympic, Commonwealth, Xterra and world champion Duffy that raises the most excitement, who should prove the stiffest of tests for whomever she is drawn against.

How will the 2022 Collins Cup play out?

In 2021, Europe were the overwhelming favourites to the point that some observers were saying the format should be altered. While they eventually ran out comfortable winners, they did have an early scare as Team USA put points on the board – Knibb’s humbling of Ryf in the first match setting the tempo.

This year, Europe are again favourites and one glance at the PTO rankings shows why.

They have the top four women and top four men, and while there’s no Frodeno nor Charles-Barclay – Europe’s fastest pair last year – there’s also no doubting that in the Norwegian duo of Blummenfelt and Iden, and in Ryf, Philipp, Haug and Matthews, they have more than enough firepower to get the job done again.

However, they might not have it all their own way. Despite Knibb’s withdrawal, the US women retain four of the team that put up such a spirited display in 2021, and could do the same again.

On the men’s side they look stronger and in better form too, and like Team Internationals slightly less hampered by the Covid travel restrictions that added to the stress of 2021.

But it’s the Internationals – and particularly with the women – who could really shake this event up. Led by Duffy, Gentle and an in-form Findlay, they look more than capable of putting big points on the board.

The captains’ picks on the men’s side are also smart choices who represent a match for anyone.

It will be intriguing to see how it unfolds through the day, but it’s worth pointing out that unlike the Ryder Cup, where it’s simply win, lose (or halve), the bonus points can make a telling difference here.

It’s not just about beating your opponent, but trying to crush them – gaining the two, four or even six-minute gap that can help the team leap up the leaderboard.

So, while you clearly need strong athletes, weak performances can also really cost you. If you haemorrhage time, you also haemorrhage points – what starts as a 2pts and 1pt deficit for a close third place can billow to 5pts and 2.5pts if an athlete is cut adrift.

It’s how Iden, Frodeno, Charles-Barclay and Matthews piled up the points last year.

Who will win the 2022 Collins Cup?

Team Europe have potentially fewer weak links, which is why I’m picking them for the win, but expect it to be much tighter than in 2021, and it could even go down to the last matchup.

If they do have a weakness it’s that their four leading women and Patrick Lange are better suited to iron-distance competition than the 100km format. It’s only a chink, but might be enough.

Taking advantage of it not being an Olympic year, Team Internationals have strengthened the most, and this should be enough to see them gain at least a runner-up spot.

While I’m loath to write-off the USA after last year, I still think the men come up short in this draft-free format where any weakness will be exploited, and I expect them to fall away towards the end and have the ignominy of the Broken Spokes trophy.

Top image credit: PTO (Team Internationals’ Ellie Salthouse winning her match-up at the 2021 Collins Cup)