Who will win the men’s race at the Ironman World Championship?

It might not be the lava fields of Hawaii as he so wanted, but three-time Ironman world champion Jan Frodeno will ascend the Maritime Alps in southern France on Sunday 10 September with no less dedication to claim victory in the final race of his professional career.

While not having the aura of invincibility that accompanied his last win in 2019, the field has opened up for the 42-year-old German, and following a virtuoso display in winning the PTO US Open in early August, Frodeno arrives in Nice as one of – if not the favourite – to go out with a bang.

Success would see only Dave Scott and Mark Allen ahead of Frodeno for Ironman world titles, although with his 2008 Olympic crown and overall impact on the sport, Frodeno rivals his predecessors in any poll for the best ever in the sport.

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With recent injuries seemingly behind him for know, Frodeno’s cause has also been helped by the absence of three of the top four from last year’s titanic showdown in Hawaii, with the focus of both Norwegians, Kristian Blummenfelt and Gustav Iden, elsewhere, and much-touted PTO European Open winner Max Neumann struggling with injury.

That’s not to say there aren’t challengers. Certainly, two-time Ironman world champion Patrick Lange should have a hand to play.

While his trump card in Kona is his ability to handle the heat, here the 37-year-old will be hoping that at 5ft 9in, his smaller frame will be suited to the extra climbing on the bike and allow him to be within striking distance to unleash the sort of 2:30hr record marathon split we saw in Challenge Roth in June.

While others have been competing at the PTO Opens and Ironman 70.,3 worlds, Lange has largely kept his powder dry since the race in Bavaria and while rivals will be hatching plans to drop him on the 112-mile bike leg, it won’t be easy.

Among those who know the threat he carries is Denmark’s Magnus Ditlev. The only man to beat Lange in Roth, the 25-year-old built on a 3:57:45 bike split to produce a blisteringly fast 7:24:30 to smash Frodeno’s course record by more than 10mins.

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Ditlev, who was set back by a controversial drafting penalty when he finished eighth in Hawaii last year, will start as many people’s favourite, but while his bike power is not in doubt, there are question marks over how he will cope with the terrain, and over his form after dropping out of the PTO US Open in Milwaukee on the run.

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From a British perspective, only Norfolk’s Joe Skipper lines up on the pro start-line, and the PTO-ranked No. 14 has put an unsteady start to the season behind him by finishing fifth in Roth and then winning an eighth Ironman title in Lake Placid in July.

The 35-year-old has the remarkable record of winning an iron-distance race every year dating back to 2017, including through the pandemic, and has finished seventh, sixth and fifth in his last three World Championship outings. He’ll certainly be expecting to keep that run going and has every chance.

Elsewhere, many eyes will be on the seven-strong home contingent led by last year’s Hawaii runner-up, the mercurial Sam Laidlow. It has been another hit and miss year for the 24-year-old with victories at Challenge Gran Canaria and Challenge London the bright spots.

But DNFs at Ironman Lanzarote and the PTO Asian Open, and a calf issue in Challenge Roth saw him drop from the lead to finish eighth. Laidlow was reportedly sick in Singapore, so if back to full health, expect to see him make his mark on the swim and bike, with anything possible on the marathon.

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A far more lowkey Frenchman also in contention in Bath-based Leon Chevalier. Seventh in Hawaii last year, where by his own admission it was a race too far, the 26-year-old has picked up a win in Ironman South Africa and a 70.3 success in France in 2023.

As a former winner of both Embrunman and Alpe d’Huez Long Course triathlon, Chevalier won’t be fazed by the bike course and as a consistent 2:40 marathon runner, he might have ground to make up from the swim, but expect him to figure prominently late in the race.

Other French athletes to watch include Clement Mignon, ninth in Hawaii last year and a winner of the World Triathlon long distance championship in Ibiza in May. Perhaps more applicable still is that the 24-year-old also won Ironman France in June on a course that covers large chunks of the World Championship route (see main image).

The experienced Denis Chevrot, 35, is having one of his best years to date as well and even took the scalp of Jan Frodeno as he won Ironman Hamburg in June.

Chevrot was fourth in the recent PTO Asian Open and his strength lies on the run, having the distinction to be one of the few men to outrun Lange in an Ironman marathon with a 2:36:02 split in Ironman Tulsa in 2021 – although the German eased back in the final stages as he closed out victory.

Also keep an eye on Arthur Horseau, Laidlow’s training partner, who took advantage of Laidlow’s misfortune to win in Lanzarote in May and has since gone on to win Embrunman.

There are plenty of other contenders as well. The switch from Hawaii should provide the sort of challenge that will be relished by New Zealand’s Braden Currie, third in the Ironman World Championship in St George last year, with victory in Cairns under his belt for 2023.

French-American Rudy Von Berg has fought injury and illness in the past few seasons, but won in Texas in April, was Ironman France winner last year and showed in the Ironman 70.3 worlds in 2019 – where he finished third – that he knows the course and conditions around Nice perhaps better than anyone else.

Daniel Bakkegard might be an outside shot for the win, but the Dane is a consistent performer at the highest level and will be eyeing at least a top five.

So too will Belgian Pieter Heemeryck, who following a challenging run due to injury, is showing that he’s both in form with a recent win in Estonia and second in the PTO Asian Open and one of the strongest cyclists in the sport.

PTO-ranked No. 21 Kristian Hogenhaug has similar ability on two wheels, and then there is INEOS Grenadiers stalwart, Cam Wurf, back for another shot at the Ironman worlds.

Now 40, the Australian is unlikely to win, but could certainly shake the race up. Despite his pro cycling commitments, Wurf has still found time to compete in four Ironmans in 2023, his best a second place in Austria.

The reality is though, as we saw with a surprise all-German podium topped by Rico Bogen in the Ironman 70.3 worlds in Finland the weekend before last, that the challenges could come from anywhere.

If USA’s Matt Hanson and Chris Leiferman can stay in contention for long enough they could have a say on the run; Ironman Austria winner Mathias Petersen is another Dane who could be in the mix; and South Africa’s Bradley Weiss is regularly a threat.

There’s no doubt that names will drop off Ironman’s 52-strong start-list as we near race day on Sunday. There will be triathletes starting whose build-up has been disrupted through injury, and others who will be under the weather come race-day.

It makes predicting the final results more difficult than perhaps we’ve ever seen in the past, but also adds to the intrigue and shows the strength of the improving quality at the highest level.

Top image credit: Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images for Ironman