2024 Ironman World Championship: Contenders and predictions for the “closest Kona ever”

Following an epic women’s race in Nice in September, attention turns to the Big Island of Hawaii, where the men will do battle at the spiritual home of the Ironman World Championship a week on Saturday.

“I think we’re going to have the closest Kona ever,” two-time champion Patrick Lange told 220 as he put the final touches to his preparation in Texas before flying out. “It will be the most exciting race we’ve had for decades because the level of competition is so high and the field is so close together.”

If the German’s words are to come true then it should be an enthralling contest played out over the familiar 3.8km swim in Kailua Bay, 180km on the bike and a 42.2km run, much of it on the famed Queen Ka’ahumanu highway that is flanked by lava fields.

Lange, who won in 2017 and 2018 and has switched coaches to be under the guidance of compatriot Ben Rezel, is again among the favourites. Although he hasn’t enjoyed the success he wanted in 2024, the 38-year-old will hope a win at the Ironman North American Championship in Texas — albeit belatedly awarded following Tomas Rodriguez’s ban for doping — proves a good omen.

Lange won the same race in 2016, ahead of a breakthrough result of third in Hawaii five months later where he broke Mark Allen’s longstanding run course record.

How will the Norwegians fair in Kona?

The other returning triathlete to have tasted victory on the Big Island is 2022 champion Gustav Iden. Yet despite the Norwegian’s glittering palmares in non-drafting racing, he will start the race as something of an unknown factor. 

Having taken time away from the sport following the death of his mother, injury and a failed Olympic qualification bid, the 28-year-old has returned in more lowkey events with recent performances in Finland and Uzbekistan suggesting he might be finding some form again.

Wherever there is Iden there is also likely to be Kristian Blummenfelt and the Ironman 2021 world champion (from a delayed race in Utah that took place in 2022) is among the main contenders to avenge his third place in 2022 by taking top spot this time.

Blummenfelt had a disappointing Olympic campaign and finished 12th trying to defend his gold medal in Paris, but was back racing Ironman Frankfurt less than three weeks later and winning in 7:27:21, one of the fastest times ever recorded.

What are Sam Laidlow’s chances in Kona?

The other returning podium finisher from 2022 is also the defending Ironman champion Sam Laidlow, whose victory in Nice last year was also his first Ironman win. 

Controversy tends to follow the Anglo-Frenchman and he was disqualified from his validation Ironman race in Spain for failing to serve a penalty, before Ironman decided that his efforts were still enough to tick the box for Hawaii. 

More recently, Laidlow has started to show world-class form in the T100 series, taking his first win in London and backing it up with second-place in Ibiza. 

The 25-year-old’s plan is always to take it out hard from the start. In 2022, he was second out of the water and then produced a course record bike split of 4:04:35 — almost 5mins faster than Australian Cameron Wurf, who broke his own bike course record in the process. Expect similar tactics from Laidlow this year.

Who else is in contention for the 2024 Ironman men’s world title?

Another big name to offer a threat is Denmark’s Magnus Ditlev. The current PTO ranked No 1 was back at Challenge Roth this summer to lower his own course record by a further minute as he posted an eye-watering 46:23 swim, 3:59:25 bike leg and 2:34:18 run for a total finish time of 7:23:24. 

Ditlev has every incentive to perform in Hawaii having picked up a disputed drafting penalty there on debut in 2022 and finished a frustrating eighth position. He has every chance too. Having placed third in Nice last year, and excelled on the T100 tour this year with a win and two fourths, an improving swim and run added to his renowned bike strength mean the Dane is also among the favourites.

Just behind the leading contenders, Rudy Von Berg is another name who jumps off the start-list. The American sealed his qualification early by winning Ironman Florida last November and fourth place in Nice last year and third in Challenge Roth in July behind Ditlev and GB’s Tom Bishop mark him out as a threat over the full distance. A win would be a surprise, but would also make Von Berg the first US athlete to take the title since Tim DeBoom in 2002.

The French trio of Leon Chevalier, Arthur Horseau and Clément Mignon are worth a mention as potential top five contenders. While all three had strong performances in Nice last year — Chevalier (fifth), Horseau (sixth) and Mignon (10th) — both Chevalier (seventh) and Mignon (ninth) also excelled in Hawaii in 2022 and are far better suited to Ironman than the T100 distance they’ve toiled at this year Horseau is Laidlow’s training partner, which has run parallel with a stepchange in performance level, although this year as with much of his career, has been littered with DNFs.

Who are the dark horses for Kona 2024?

Could there be some outside bets for success? In a 56-strong field (although don’t expect all the listed professionals to start) there are bound to be some surprises.

Spain’s Antonio Benito López will debut as the World Triathlon long-course world champion following victory in Townsville, Australia. Australia’s Wurf may not feature in the final reckoning, but, along with Sweden’s Robert Kallin and USA’s Matthew Marquardt, is likely to mix things up on the bike leg.

Plenty of eyes will also be on Canadian Lionel Sanders, who will hope to revive memories of 2017, where he finished second to Lange but has had a miserable time in three appearances on the Big Island since.

As for British hopes. With no Joe Skipper, who was fifth in 2022 but has struggled this season, it leaves just two triathletes flying the Union flag. Kieran Lindars is making his debut having qualified among emotional scenes in Frankfurt. 

While Lindars has his work cut out to make the top 15 and earn prize money, his front pack swim ability and the confidence afforded by becoming the fastest ever British Ironman in Germany work to his favour. 

The heat and humidity of Kona make it a different beast but one that Kona veteran David McNamee understands well as he returns for a seventh time, hoping to bring the form of 2017 and 2018, where he finished third twice — the best result ever by a British man in the event. 

220 columnist Tim Heming’s predictions

Lange believes this could be the closest Kona race ever and I agree it will be hotly contested for the majority of the first two legs, but could — as so often happens — blow apart at the closing stages of the bike and the marathon. 

It won’t be conservative, so expect to see shades of 2022 with a large pack exiting the swim together on to the Kona pier followed by another red-hot and lightning fast — if conditions allow — bike leg. 

Unlike 2022, I don’t see the main contenders letting Laidlow get away and have sole enjoyment of the advantages that brings. While Laidlow’s bike strength is beyond doubt, the additional media motos that reduce drag and allow for higher speeds at less effort at the front do sway the race dynamics.

So, while it’s likely to be Laidlow out front again following the swim, Blummenfelt and Ditlev will do whatever it takes to avoid ceding more than 5min again before the marathon, and should have enough allies such as Kallin and Marquardt on the bike to achieve it.

The racing is evolving and I don’t see Sanders, Wurf or Chevalier being a factor for the top five because of the swim deficit and the firepower ahead of them.

Lange is still the most proven marathon runner in the field, so the longer he can hold on during the ride, the better his overall finishing position, but although he can reel plenty in in the run, it’s likely he won’t catch everyone out of T2.

The run will simply depend on what they all have left, which is a brutal way to start a marathon. I don’t see Iden being a factor having not had the time to work back to his form of two years ago, but feel it’s likely to come to a showdown between Laidlow and Blummenfelt, with the defending champion, who has long stated it’s his childhood dream to win in Hawaii landing the title he craves.

2024 Ironman World Championship predictions

1. Sam Laidlow (FRA)
2. Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR)
3. Magnus Ditlev (DEN)
4. Rudy Von Berg (USA)
5. Patrick Lange (GER)

2024 Ironman World Championship men’s start-list

1. Sam Laidlow FRA

2. Patrick Lange DEU

3. Magnus Ditlev DNK

4. Gustav Iden NOR

5. Kristian Blummenfelt NOR

6. Rudy Von Berg USA

7. Leon Chevalier FRA

8. Arthur Horseau FRA

9. Bradley Weiss ZAF

10. Gregory Barnaby ITA

11. Robert Wilkowiecki POL

12. Clément Mignon FRA

14. Matt Burton AUS

15. Rasmus Svenningsson SWE

16. Stenn Goetstouwers BEL

17. Trevor Foley USA

18. Antonio Benito López ESP

19. Michael Weiss AUT

20. Sam Appleton AUS

21. Denis Chevrot FRA

22. Pieter Heemeryck BEL

23. Daniel Bækkegård DNK

24. Reinaldo Colucci BRA

25. Steven McKenna AUS

27. Matt Hanson USA

28. Arnaud Guilloux FRA

29. Jackson Laundry CAN

30. Chris Leiferman USA

31. Robert Kallin SWE

32. Matthew Marquardt USA

33. Paul Schuster DEU

34. Jonas Hoffman DEU

35. Kristian Høgenhaug DNK

36. Andre Lopes BRA

37. Braden Currie NZL

38. Mathias Petersen DNK

39. Lionel Sanders CAN

40. Thor Bendix Madsen DNK

41. Nick Thompson AUS

42. Tristan Olij NED

43. Mike Phillips NZL

44. Jason Pohl CAN

45. Tomasz Szala POL

46. David McNamee GBR

47. Kieran Lindars GBR

48. Menno Koolhaas NLD

49. Kacper Stepniak POL

50. Finn Große-Freese DEU

51. Ben Hamilton NZL

52. Leonard Arnold DEU

53. Ben Kanute USA

54. Cameron Wurf AUS

55. Dylan Magnien FRA

56. Igor Amorelli BRA